Market Overview
Mississippi's lodging market enters mid-2026 as a steady, value-tier, gaming-anchored story. Trailing-12-month blended occupancy sits in the mid-50s (≈55.3%, est.) with ADR near $111 (est.) and RevPAR near $62 (est.) — well below national averages (≈62% occupancy, ≈$160 ADR), but notably low-volatility. The demand engine is the Mississippi Gulf Coast, where casino resorts anchored by Beau Rivage (1,740 rooms) drove roughly $1.59 billion of gaming revenue in 2025, a modest gain, and command the state's highest occupancy (≈58%, est.) and rate (≈$135 ADR, est.).
Statewide, casino gaming revenue was essentially flat in 2025 at $2.43 billion (down 0.1%). The split matters: the Gulf Coast and lower-river casinos grew, but the Tunica market in the north continued its structural decline — including the closure of Sam's Town — dragging the state total. Tunica (≈49% occupancy, est.) is the clear weak spot and a lodging headwind for northwest Mississippi. Inland metros run steadier, unspectacular demand: Jackson on government, UMMC medical, and business travel; Tupelo on manufacturing and regional tourism; Hattiesburg on the University of Southern Mississippi, healthcare, and the I-59 corridor.
The defining forward story is Gulf Coast supply. The Mississippi Gaming Commission approved the ~$700 million, 1,300-room Tivoli casino-resort in Biloxi — which would be the Coast's second-largest hotel after Beau Rivage — and additional casino projects are proposed, even as Hollywood Casino Bay St. Louis completes a hotel renovation and the new boutique Hotel Biloxi opened in June 2026. Against a national backdrop of flat-to-soft hotel fundamentals, Mississippi offers stability and value; the question is how a wave of new Coast rooms will be absorbed.
Headline Metrics
Blended statewide indicators across the four covered submarkets, with year-over-year change. Occupancy change is shown in percentage points; rate, supply, and pricing in percent.
Trailing-12mo blended; below the ~62% national average, steady QoQ.
Per occupied room/night, blended; Gulf Coast casino resorts lead.
Revenue per available room; low-volatility, value-tier market.
Existing room inventory across the five covered submarkets.
Excludes the approved 1,300-key Tivoli resort (not yet under construction).
Trailing-12mo transactions; value pricing vs. regional peers.
Performance Trends
Twelve quarters of statewide blended performance, showing the steady, low-volatility seasonality of a value, gaming-anchored market.
Occupancy Rate
est.Statewide blended, % of available rooms sold
ADR & RevPAR
est.Average daily rate vs. revenue per available room ($)
Net Demand vs. New Supply
est.Quarterly net rooms-sold change vs. new rooms delivered (rooms)
Room Inventory Growth
est.Cumulative existing room supply across covered submarkets
Submarket Breakdown
Click any column to sort. All submarket figures are estimates (est.) calibrated to reported occupancy and rate levels. Totals are room-weighted.
| Submarket↕ | Rooms▼ | Occupancy↕ | ADR↕ | RevPAR↕ | Under Constr.↕ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mississippi Gulf Coast Casino resorts, beaches, conventions | 17,000 | 58.0% | $135 | $78 | 400 |
Jackson Government, UMMC medical, business | 9,500 | 54.0% | $98 | $53 | 150 |
Tunica (North River) River casinos (structurally declining) | 5,500 | 49.0% | $88 | $43 | 30 |
Hattiesburg USM, medical, I-59 corridor | 4,800 | 55.0% | $95 | $52 | 140 |
Tupelo Manufacturing, regional hub, tourism | 4,200 | 56.0% | $92 | $52 | 120 |
| Statewide (covered) | 41,000 | 55.3% | $111 | $62 | 840 |
Covered Submarkets
stylizedMarker size scaled to room inventory.
Development & Pipeline Activity
The hospitality analogue of leasing activity: notable new builds, conversions, renovations, and planned additions shaping near-term supply.
| Property | Rooms | Submarket | Type | Status | Timing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tivoli Casino & Resort (Biloxi Capital) | 1,300 | Mississippi Gulf Coast | Planned | $700M; site approved 2025; 2nd-largest Biloxi hotel after Beau Rivage | TBD |
| Broadwater Casino & Resortest. | 400 | Mississippi Gulf Coast | Planned | Proposed Biloxi casino-resort redevelopment | TBD |
| Hollywood Casino — Bay St. Louis | 290 | Mississippi Gulf Coast | Renovation | Multi-floor hotel renovation completing 2026 | 2026 |
| Hotel Biloxi (retro boutique) | 45 | Mississippi Gulf Coast | New build | Opened June 2026, east Biloxi | Q2 '26 |
| Downtown select-service hotelest. | 150 | Jackson | New build | Under construction | Q4 '26 |
| USM-area select-serviceest. | 140 | Hattiesburg | New build | Under construction | Q1 '27 |
Transaction Activity
Representative recent hotel trades by submarket and segment. This table is illustrative/modeled (est.) — replace with verified comps before publication.
| Property | Keys | Price | $ / Key | Submarket | Segment | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beachfront resort (repositioned)est. | 240 | $36.0M | $150,000 | Mississippi Gulf Coast | Resort / casino-adjacent | Q2 2025 |
| Casino-corridor select-serviceest. | 180 | $18.0M | $100,000 | Mississippi Gulf Coast | Upper-midscale | Q4 2025 |
| Downtown full-serviceest. | 200 | $20.0M | $100,000 | Jackson | Upper-upscale | Q1 2026 |
| Regional select-serviceest. | 110 | $9.9M | $90,000 | Tupelo | Upper-midscale | Q3 2025 |
| Extended-stayest. | 100 | $8.5M | $85,000 | Hattiesburg | Extended-stay | Q1 2026 |
| River casino limited-serviceest. | 150 | $10.5M | $70,000 | Tunica (North River) | Midscale | Q3 2025 |
Forward Outlook
Over the next 12–24 months we expect Mississippi lodging to stay stable, with the Gulf Coast supply pipeline as the single most important variable. Existing casino-resort demand should hold occupancy in the high-50s on the Coast and keep statewide RevPAR growth in the low single digits, rate-led. But the approved 1,300-room Tivoli resort plus other proposed Biloxi projects could add well over 2,000 rooms over the medium term — enough to pressure Coast occupancy even as the projects grow the overall market and convention base. Timing is uncertain (Tivoli is approved but not yet under construction), so the impact sits largely beyond this window.
Tunica remains the structural risk: continued gaming erosion and the Sam's Town closure argue for further occupancy softness and possible additional consolidation in the north-river market. Inland metros (Jackson, Tupelo, Hattiesburg) should track flat-to-modestly-positive on stable government, manufacturing, university, and medical demand. On investment, expect value pricing to persist — Gulf Coast casino-adjacent and select-service assets trading on cash flow, inland product changing hands at low per-key bases relative to regional peers. Base case: occupancy roughly flat in the mid-50s, RevPAR up low-single-digits, with supply the key swing factor.
Sources & Assumptions
Every grounded source and every estimated figure, surfaced for audit. Figures marked “est.” throughout the report are researched or modeled estimates, not official prints.
Data Sources
- MS Gaming Commission / Daily Leader — statewide gaming 2025Statewide casino revenue $2.43B in 2025, down 0.1% YoY; Gulf Coast & lower-river gains offset by Tunica's continued decline (incl. Sam's Town closure).https://dailyleader.com/2025/12/29/255152/
- WLOX / Mississippi Business Journal — Gulf Coast gamingSouth Mississippi (Gulf Coast) casinos posted ~$1.5–1.59B in gaming activity in 2025, a modest increase; most casinos posted gains.https://www.wlox.com/2026/01/26/south-mississippi-casinos-see-15-billion-gaming-activity-2025/
- Casino.org / Magnolia Tribune — Tivoli resort & Coast supplyGaming Commission site approval for ~$700M, 1,300-room Tivoli casino-resort in east Biloxi (2nd-largest Coast hotel after Beau Rivage's 1,740 rooms); market 'braces for flood of new competition.'https://www.casino.org/news/biloxi-casino-with-1300-room-hotel-gains-site-approval/
- WLOX — Coast hotel openings & renovationsHotel Biloxi (retro boutique) opened June 2026; Hollywood Casino Bay St. Louis multi-floor hotel renovation completing 2026.https://www.wlox.com/2026/06/03/hotel-biloxi-opens-developer-eyes-magnolia-hotel-restoration/
- AirROI — Mississippi short-term-rental benchmarks (2026)Reference points used to calibrate demand: Biloxi 36% occ / $195 ADR; Jackson 35.5% / $156 / $55 RevPAR.https://www.airroi.com/report/world/united-states/mississippi/biloxi
- CBRE Hotels / CoStar–Tourism Economics — U.S. figures & 2026 forecastNational 2025 benchmarks (occupancy 62.3%, ADR $160.54, RevPAR $100.02) and a modest 2026 outlook, used for positioning.https://www.hoteldive.com/news/hotel-industry-performance-2026-costar-tourism-economics/810703/
Estimates & Methodology
- All headline KPIs (occupancy, ADR, RevPAR, total supply, rooms under construction, $/key) are est. — trailing-12-month blends across the five covered submarkets in a CoStar/STR-style aggregation; not an official market print.
- 12-quarter time series is est./modeled, calibrated to reported facts: flat 2025 statewide gaming, a resilient Gulf Coast, Tunica's decline, and modest summer demand peaks.
- Submarket room counts, occupancy, ADR, and RevPAR are est., calibrated to reported gaming revenue and STR reference points; hotel-level occupancy/ADR are not published for these markets.
- Reported anchors: statewide gaming $2.43B (-0.1%) and Gulf Coast ~$1.59B (2025); Beau Rivage 1,740 rooms; Tivoli 1,300-room/$700M site approval; Hollywood Bay St. Louis renovation; Hotel Biloxi opening. The 1,300-room Tivoli is EXCLUDED from rooms-under-construction (approved, not yet started).
- Tunica (North River) figures are est. and reflect a structurally declining casino market (Sam's Town closure).
- Q2 2026 values are estimates for a quarter still in progress; latest hard data points are Q1 2026 / full-year 2025.
- Statewide totals cover only the Gulf Coast, Jackson, Tunica, Hattiesburg, and Tupelo — not every Mississippi submarket (e.g., Oxford, Starkville, Meridian, Greenville excluded).
- The Transactions (Sales) table is illustrative/modeled — representative of recent Mississippi trades, not confirmed individual deals. Verify comps before publication.
- The state map is a stylized, approximate SVG for orientation only — not to geographic scale.
Your Hospitality Team
Local expertise for buyers, sellers, and investors across the Gulf South hotel market. Reach out to discuss valuations, dispositions, or acquisition opportunities.
With over 25 years of experience in real estate, Manish is one of the select agents simultaneously holding the industry's highest hotel and real estate certifications — a CHA and a CCIM. Born and raised in Baton Rouge, he earned his MBA from Louisiana State University and has been active in hotel development since the early 2000s, building strong relationships with operators, vendors, and franchisers across the Gulf region.
Currently director of 40+ family-owned commercial properties across Southern Louisiana, Manish draws on his owner/operator experience to maximize value for clients. He was named 2017 Regional Newcomer of the Year at his prior national brokerage, and in 2023 ranked Top 10 in regional sales volume — consistently surpassing regional hotel price-per-room sales records.
Asha is a Baton Rouge–based commercial real estate agent specializing in hospitality and investment properties. As part of the hotel brokerage team at Stirling Properties, she works with owners and investors across the Gulf South on acquisitions and dispositions.
With a background in residential and commercial real estate plus property management, Asha understands both the transactional and operational sides of the business — evaluating hotels as operating companies, with a focus on performance, efficiency, and long-term value.
Known for her patience, strong work ethic, and straightforward approach, Asha builds lasting relationships rooted in trust and clear communication. Her goal is simple: help owners maximize value and help investors move forward with confidence.